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PaulS's picture

Crude reality of oil

Western world is faced with the crude reality of rising oil prices

By Liam Halligan (one of my favourite business commentators)

Since mid-March, the IMF has lowered its growth forecasts for the US, UK, the eurozone – in fact, for the entire global economy. That should mean lower oil prices, but crude has still gone up.

Oil traders are now realising "demand destruction" arguments have been overdone.

Across the big emerging markets, now accounting for around half of the world's total oil use, consumption is still rising fast, despite the credit crisis. The global population continues to escalate – and in the most populous countries per capita, oil use is growing faster still. Even in the Western world, the fall in demand has now bottomed out and oil use is growing once more.

Global oil markets are growing ever more concerned at mounting evidence the world's largest fields are now seriously depleting.

These developments are setting up a "vertical supply curve" – where, as the global economy recovers, just a small demand increase could cause a shocking price jump.

Well done Liam, you are getting there!

The full article is here: