smartphone orten software here handy ortung russland mspy auf iphone 6s Plus installieren spy cam app iphone 6s Plus handy kindersicherung internet vergleich sms spy yahoo
Skip navigation.
Home
... for greater sustainability and local resilience

News

A collection of news stories, reports and announcements from or about Transition related matters.

To add news stories, just click on 'add new comment' and fill in the 'Post a comment' form.

To comment on any of the items, just click on the item itself and then click 'reply' (bottom of page)

Peak Oil Primer by Chris Skrebowski

Summary points from Presentation by Chris Skrebowski
Published Jun 12 2007 by Transition Culture

How close to peak oil are we?
by Chris Skrebowski

Rob Hopkins of Transition Culture writes:

At last night's Food and Farming in Transition evening at Dartington Hall, of which I shall write more soon, Chris Skrebowski, editor of the Petroleum Review and author of the Megaprojects reports, gave a talk which used a Powerpoint which he had to zip through quite fast. ... here is Chris's presentation, an opportunity for all you peak oil anoraks to update your presentations with the latest graphs!

BA: Below is a text transcription of 9 of the 24 slides.

Chris Skrebowski: Trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre and
Editor of Petroleum Review, Inergy Institute, London
---
Who am I?

Chris Skrebowski has spent half his working life in the oil industry and the rest as an oil journalist

Free of corporate or political pressure he brings a healthy scepticism to the problem
Not pessimistic by nature, not anti-Oil
Basic approach to Peak Oil analysis
Don't guess, assume or hope - let the numbers talk
Observe what companies do, not what they say.
So what is 'Peak Oil'?

It is the point when further expansion production becomes impossible because:

New production flows are full offset by production declines (depletion)
You never run out of oil
You do run out of incremental flows
The world needs oil products to support growth
Latest BP statistics show Peaks are already happening

OECD production peaked in 1997 and has now declined by just under 2 million b/d (8.8%)

Non-Opec, non-FSU production peaked in 2002
North America/Mexico peaked in 1997
North Sea - UK/Norway/Denmark peaked in 2000 now declined by 1.2 million b/d (19.2%)
Around 25 significant producers in delcine
About 35% of global production from decliners
The practical realities

The world needs oil production flows

Consumers need deliver flows
Reserves are only useful as flows
Peak oil is when flows can't meet the required demand
Worry about flows not reserves
Many talk of reserves and forget flows
Seven key pieces of evidence suggesting we are close to Peak

Falling discovery rate, few large discoveries

Increasing number of countries in sustained depletion
Companies struggling to hold production
Non-geologic threats [to] future oil supply
The current lack of incremental flows
Few countries with real growth potential
Sustained high oil prices, except in recessions
A simple observation - or why peak will be earlier than most people expect:

"Global production falls when loss of output from countries in decline exceeds gains in output from those that are expanding."

Post-peak we are going to need other energy sources - Opportunity

How fast will supply decline post-peak?

Possibly around 2-3% / year like the US onshore but initially at just 1-2%
But, it could be much faster
Suppliers could anticipate, ration out supplies, delay peak and force adaptation
Some might use military strength to commandeer supplies
My conclusions at very best

Supply will remain tight and prices high barring a major economic setback

Oil supply will peak in 2011/12 at about 92-94 million barrels/day
There will be supply shortfalls in winter before Peak
Oil
Supply in international trade will peak 2-3 years earlier than the oil production peak (i.e. 2009/2010)
Aided by CERA's optimism we are still in denial
There are huge challenges and huge opportunities