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PaulS's picture

World Energy Outlook 2010

World Energy Outlook 2010

The 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) was released on 9 November and it provides updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, fuel by fuel and region by region to 2035. It includes, for the first time, a new scenario that anticipates future actions by governments to meet the commitments they have made to tackle climate change and growing energy insecurity.

WEO-2010 also puts the spotlight on several topical issues, including what more must be done and spent post-Copenhagen to limit the global temperature increase to 2°C and how these actions would impact oil markets; how emerging economies – led by China and India – will increasingly shape the global energy landscape; the costs and benefits of increasing renewable energy, the outlook for Caspian energy markets and their implications for global energy supply, the future role for unconventional oil and the crucial importance of energy in achieving the UN Millennium Development Goals.

For the full report, Executive summary and key graphs click here:


The 'key graphs' are revealing.

The first impressions are that the report is pure fiction, so thinly veiled as to be as clear alarm bell as the report writers can be, politically.

It has total conventional crude oil production as completely flat, to within 1 mpd, for 20 years. This is about as believable as OPEC stated reserves.

It has an ever greater percentage of conventional oil coming from the 'yet to be discovered' category, and the rate of depletion of these is pure fantasy land.

In other words, they are saying that to keep conventional production flat, and given realistic draw down of existing reserves and new field dicoveries, the oil industry will have to perform miracles.

Summing up then, crude oil will never again reach the peak of 2005 and unless we get considerable long-term investment in unconventionals and as-yet undiscovered technologies to clean up afterwards, we haven't a prayer of keeping up with increasing demand.

Nothing new then.