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PaulS's picture

far too optimistic

I suppose the article is reasonable, given that it was published in the main media. However, much of its content is far too optimistic:

- Peak Oil is in the past (in 2005) Oil production in all following year has been lower and is most unlikely ever to exceed the 2005 level
- Sustained growth is no longer possible due to energy limits (mainly due to oil depletion). Occasional short burst of growth will still occur from time to time, but each will be smothered by the energy shortage and consequent price spikes.
- Oil price may or may not reach '$130 in 2015'. Oil price will fluctuate wildly depending how deep our depression is in that particular quarter. The deeper the depression the lower the oil price and vice versa, which is what will periodically kill of any attempted recovery.
- Combine that with the unfolding financial crisis, which is bound to result in a meltdown of asset values to perhaps 10-20% of current values (including your house, your pension pot and of course stock markets) within perhaps two years and we will be lucky if our current civilisation epoch survives at all.

If you want to be reasonably safe, you need to downsize, have no debts, invest in personal resilience (own food, renewable source of energy and a skill essential to others) and alert your neighbours, so that you aren't the only one prepared in your neighbourhood.

The Transition Movement offers a plausible solution. Just Google it... and good luck