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PaulS's picture

IEA: The next oil crisis

The IEA (International Energy Agency) warns of shortages -
A shortage of oil could trigger another global recession around 2013 – says the IEA. By 2010 the price will reach new highs.

The data shows that the global oil supply capacity is declining. The stronger oil demand will be in a recovery, the sooner the shortage will appear and strangle global growth.

According to the IEA, the oil price could then exceed the records achieved in the summer of 2008 and reach $200 per barrel. "We could be steering into a new crisis which could be greater than the current crisis", said Mr. Tanaka.

The investments however, are necessary to meet demand when it starts picking up again. This is not a matter of oil running out, but IEA studies prove that the oil produced from 580 of the largest 800 fields is declining.

The CEO of the French oil company Total, Christophe de Margerie, is even predicting that global production will never exceed 89 million barrels per day (=2008 production levels), because the peak has passed and oil can only be extracted with ever increasing technical inputs.

The IEA however is predicting markedly higher global demand. Almost half of the demand must be met by new fields, because existing reserves are declining more and more. Tanaka is calling on the OECD countries, the 30 western industrialised economies for which he speaks, to radically change in their energy policies.

Unfortunately, he has found that because of the global economic crisis, investments in renewable energy and nuclear power are declining. If additional measures are not undertaken however against global warming, and the CO2 emissions continue their step upward trajectory, this will lead to warming of six degrees centigrade by the end of the century. "This would be a disaster", said Tanaka. Then the northern German city of Hanover would be as warm as Marrakech today.

The IEA is recommending increased energy efficiency. Governments should induce consumers to use energy as focused as possible. Globally, he is recommending an energy mix with 50% renewables such as wind, hydro and solar. A quarter would have to come from nuclear power. A further quarter would have to come from sources where CO2 would have to be sequestered underground.

Because this will be difficult to achieve, the IEA believes that there will be an increased dependency on oil. "It is true that the weight of OPEC will increase, even if we reduce our oil consumption. And this is the central question for our energy security."

Full article here: http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48582
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So,
1. Oil and energy prices above previous records as soon as recovery starts
2. 50% of future oil to come from new fields (=impossible)
3. 50% of energy to come from renewables. UK is curently on 3%.
4. Peak Oil already reached - even Oil Executive admits

Hope you getting your wind turbine soon!